Friday, 5 May 2017

The Egyptian economy enters the center of attention

 Name: Amiraa Nasr Abdel-hamed  
ID: 54561



 The negative impact of the crisis was evident on the performance of the main sectors, led by the tourism sector, where the growth rate of this sector by (-7.8)%. Followed by the Suez Canal, where revenues fell by (-2.5)%, which is a reflection of the beginning of the impact of the crisis. This decline is expected to continue in the next phase, but more especially considering the maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea by Somali pirates and the potential for a decline in transport and trade during the coming period, the effect will be much more severe. At the same time, the construction, transport, communications, manufacturing and agriculture sectors achieved positive growth rates, but in most cases less than in the previous year. These sectors witnessed a significant decline in their growth rates. The growth rate in the construction sector decreased by 6.1% (Growth of about 9.3% this year compared to 15.4% last year), then the manufacturing sector fell by 4.2% (growth rate of about 3.8% this year compared to 8% last year), then the transport sector decreased by 2.7% The growth rate was 5.4% compared to 8.1% during the same period To a decline of about 0.2% (a growth rate of 3.1% compared to 3.3% during the same period).
Despite the modest performance of most economic sectors, the oil and gas sector posted a growth rate of more than 4.8% last year compared with 2.9% last year and the telecommunications sector which grew by 19.2% compared to growth rate of 15.5% % Over the past year

 

"  These were the views of some people on that subject "

 Mohammed Khalid was told in his 30s that "The Sisi destroyed everything in Egypt .. And he tries to work personal glory projects any words .. destroyed the economy of the country ..
The latest projects of the destructive Sisi .. is the termination on state television ..
Military intelligence worked space dmc to be promoted to the followers of Sisi ..
Maspero has been destroyed for the convenience of Sisi .."  
 
Mahmoud Wajih was quoted as saying that the Egyptian pound crisis is only a symptom of the current economic crisis, but the worst thing is that the pound continues to fall to its lowest level. 
 
 "All the signs indicate that the collapse continues, and it will have serious repercussions on the living conditions of the Egyptians, where the prices of commodities are crazy," said Heba Magdy, 40.
 
 Another person at the age of 50 said that the magnitude of the economic crisis in Egypt is far from conceivable, and the collapse of the Egyptian pound is only a natural and logical consequence of the chaos that began in 2011 and the situation worsens significantly after 2013, although the Gulf states have been quick to help the Egyptian government to maintain order The collapse continued and by the end of 2015 the Gulf states began to stop direct aid.  
 

" Experts forecast 2017 economic worst on Egypt"

 Hani Tawfiq, an economist and chairman of the Egyptian Association for Direct Investment, said that the next phase will witness a default and bankruptcy of many companies as a result of dollar indebtedness, which has doubled in value in Egyptian pound, especially after the decision to float the pound. Has resources and revenue in dollars.

As the economic expert pointed out in his comments on his personal Facebook site, that the decline in profits of some Egyptian banks and the deterioration of the status of financial centers of other banks is also the result of the debts encumbered by the dollar, especially as some of these banks had open and open funds before The government's decision on flotation, predicting that the next fiscal year will see a lot of bad and doubtful debts, in addition to the high cost of funds as part of the consequences of a 3% rate hike in one step.

Tawfiq added that the defaults will include real estate companies, especially small ones, specifically those who sold residential units for 7 years before the flotation, without taking any precautionary measures on the high cost of building materials and facilities during the construction process, stressing that the risks are not limited to companies only , But buyers of these units by installments, not being able to receive units as a result of the flotation, in addition to the high prices of existing properties to increase the prices of the costs of new buildings.

Tawfik also predicted that the flotation decision would have an impact on imported goods. "Due to the lack of adequate stock of imported goods such as machinery, equipment and spare parts, it is difficult to make available these imported goods," Tawfiq said, explaining that the local product is unable to compete or become an alternative. The lack of modern productive equipment and trained workers, leading to the emergence of unemployment resulting from the shift from import to GDP, reduction in the expenses of foreign schools and the conversion of many students to cheaper schools.

Tawfik said that the next stage will witness "inflationary stagnation" due to the decrease in purchasing power, high prices of goods and the cost of foreign products, pointing to the possibility of high prices of transport tickets and public transport, such as buses, trains and the subway, by not less than 50% Fuel prices only, but for higher prices of various vehicle parts.

"In light of the current economic situation, the dollar is expected to reach EGP 24 in the first decade of 2017, to reach EGP 41 by the end of next year," said economist Wael Al-Nahas. The rate of inflation of the dollar during the past two years, "adding that this situation is forcing the central bank to a step described as suicide, is to put part of the cash reserve as an exceptional offer to provide dollar liquidity in the market, after the disappearance of a number of essential goods, headed by drugs.

In a statement to several Egyptian media, Copper predicted that the price of the dollar will continue to rise, so that the country will find a way to provide national income from hard currency. It can be done through two means of exporting services such as maritime services through the Suez Canal, To bring the dollar to the Egyptian market.

He described the decision to float the pound by the wrong decision, citing the experience of China in the devaluation of the local currency "Yuan" twice in a row, without harming the Chinese market and then the inflation, but increased export stocks, a reference to the main reason for the economy to production and satisfy the market with domestic production Instead of resorting to import it has, as in Egypt.

 

 

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